Poker Independent Chip Model

1. Poker Independent Chip Model Anchor Chart
2. Poker Independent Chip Model Calculator
3. Poker Independent Chip Models
4. Independent Chip Model Poker

The Independent Chip Model, or ICM as it’s more commonly referred to, is a mathematical model used in the late stages of tournaments to calculate your total equity in the prize pool, the money you stand to make in the tournament. As you have seen, the conversion from chips into real dollars (from cEV to $EV) with the Independent Chip Model (ICM) is not very simple and is very time consuming. You will not be able to compute such ICM calculations in real-time while playing poker. The abbreviation ICM stands for Independent Chip Model, but what does it mean and how it should influence our strategy? ICM exists in tournaments where the prize pool is shared among multiple players — even if you win all the chips, you don’t win all the money. CrunchyNut’s Independent Chip Model by Tyson Tanaka Oct 19, 2020 Poker Strategy, SNG 0 comments By request, I’ma try to lay down a more in depth explanation of ICM and what it could mean for your poker play. In a poker tournament, the Independent Chip Model (ICM) is a mathematical model that is used to more precisely calculate overall equity in a tournament. Due to chip stack values changing over time as the tournament progresses with the remaining players getting closer to the money, each player must take into account the rewards/risks of any play.

Many high profile poker players started out their career by playing single table tournaments, more commonly known as sit-n-go’s. Samer Khuri, more commonly known in the online sit-n-go world as “Braminc,” moved up the ranks in the online sit-n-go world and was one of the best players in the high-stakes six and nine-man sit-n-go’s on Full Tilt Poker.

After Black Friday, Khuri left the U.S. for Lebanon, where he has continued his sit-n-go career on PokerStars.

Khuri netted hundreds of thousands of dollars by understanding the nuances of these single table tournaments. He recently sat down with Card Player to talk about the Independent Chip Model (ICM) and the role that it plays in forming a solid sit-n-go strategy.

Steve Schult: Can you explain what ICM is?

Samer Khuri: It stands for independent chip model and it is a way of assigning a value of chips at any stage in a tournament. The reason this is even necessary is because chips are not directly related to a dollar value during the course of a tournament the same way they are in a cash game. Because the formula is so complicated for calculating the value of your chips, some genius math guys created the independent chip model and some calculators that we can use to calculate the actual dollar value of our chip stack. It’s a way for measuring the value of our stack.

The term is overused in a sense. People will say things like “ICM doesn’t say to do that.” I think what people really mean to say is that it’s not a good shove or fold because of the value of your stack before and after based on what ICM would tell you. The daily usage of the term has gotten a little more generous if you will.

SS: How does ICM and different payout structures affect how you should be playing in the early stages of a sit-n-go and in the late stages?

SK: In general, it is going to mean that you have to play tighter than you would in a winner-take-all or a cash game format. That would be the first thing to note because when you get into more details it gets pretty complicated. Different payout structures have different results on what your strategy should be. If you are playing a very top-heavy payout structure, with the most top-heavy being a winner-take-all format, then you are going to be allowed to play very aggressively in order to have optimal strategy. Likewise, any tournament with a structure that comes close to that, such as a six-max sit-n-go with 70 percent of the prize pool going to first place, then generally a more aggressive strategy will be the best choice.

Conversely, a more flat payout structure where first place gets paid a much less percentage of the prize pool and second, third, fourth, and sometimes even fifth and sixth place getting some of the prize pool, then ICM will play a much bigger part of your strategy and will result in you playing much tighter in a lot of situations. In general, the presence of ICM will instruct you to play pretty tightly both early and later in the tournament. Now, later in the tournament, if your opponents are playing too tight or if they know they are supposed to be playing tight, you can actually play a little loose so it does become a little complicated and the details become more dependent upon the players you are playing against. In general, it is going to force you to play a tight early game and then a tight or loose late game depending on opponents.

SS: How would you respond to those who say that sit-n-goes are solved. If you are able to make adjustments based on your opponents, wouldn’t that lead to the game not being solved?

SK: I think in the highest ICM games, the games are closest to being solved. What I mean by highest ICM games are the flattest payout structures, like the double-or-nothings. All you have to do in that tournament is play ridiculously tight and make a few steals when you have a few opportunities just to stay alive into the final five. There is a little room for creativity, but in that tournament there really is no real room.

In a game like a six-max sit-n-go, where it’s 70 percent for 1st and 30 percent for 2nd. That is a game that is much less solved and there is much more room for creativity and different strategies that can also be winning strategies. There is no one set winning strategy in those games.

There is also a lot of stuff in between from top-heavy to flat. A nine-man sit-n-go which is kind of the most typically thought of format because it’s maybe the oldest one. It is a little more on the higher ICM side of things. It’s a little bit tighter and closer to the double-or-nothings although still not even close to as tight as the double-or-nothing. It is probably the second or third tightest structure and is a little bit more into the solved area.

The thing about being solved is that I think it is just being used as an oversimplification. It’s an exaggeration but it’s not completely untrue. If you have all educated one of the most solved games it’s going to be either unbeatable or beatable for a very small win rate. The thing is though is that it just never happens.

SS: Can you explain the “ICM Tax” that you hear about so often in sit-n-go strategy?

SK: Using the phrase ICM tax is kind of a user-friendly way of describing what ICM is. It’s not the most accurate way to look at something, but in general it goes back to the same principle of what ICM is and the fact that your chips are not directly related to the dollar value of your stack size and the way that fluctuates. Consider a situation where somebody is going all in and you have to call. ICM tax basically says that doubling up your stack is worth less than losing your whole stack.

If you lose your whole stack you lose 100 percent of your dollar value. If you double your stack, you do not gain 100 percent of your value. You usually a little bit less or a lot less depending on chip stacks and payout structures. So you will never be gaining a full 100 percent while you will always be risking a full 100 percent. You are paying a little bit extra to double up but you are still risking everything. So winning chips isn’t as important as keeping chips in a lot of spots.

SS: Can you talk about how ICM tax affects bubble play?

SK: Whenever you are encountering ICM tax, you are going to need better than average odds to call off your stack. Sometimes on the bubble, you will need 70-75 percent edge to turn a profit. If you are second in chips and facing the chip leader going all in, you can know that he is going all-in with every single hand in the world, including 2-3 off suit, you need a hand that has 70 percent or more equity against his range. A hand like A-K or A-Q don’t cover the ICM tax and usually in spots like this the bottom of our calling range will be either pocket tens or pocket jacks, which will have enough equity against an any two card range to make up for that ICM tax.

SS: Can you elaborate on a situation you have encountered where ICM tax really handcuffs you on the bubble?

SK: I’ve been in this situation hundreds of times where you are on the bubble of a nine-man tournament, so there are four players left. One player has around 1,000 chips, another player has like 2,500, and the big stack has like 5,500 and you are in the big blind with 4,500 and are dealt A-K suited. The blinds are 200/400, so you have about 11 big blinds and it folds around to the small blind who is the big stack at the table and he shoves all in. This player is somebody you know and you know he plays aggressively and you know he is shoving any two cards or very close to it.
Even if he is shoving any two cards, including 2-3 off suit, then you have to fold.

If you look it up in an ICM calculator, you will find that by making the call, you will be losing 1.77 percent of your prize pool equity. What that means is that if you measure your prize pool equity, which is the average amount of dollars you will win, at the beginning of the hand, and you measure after you have called, you will see that you actually have much lower prize pool equity. That isn’t 1.77 percent less than your starting equity. That will be 1.77 percent less than the total prize pool in play.

Normally in ICM studies, anything above .1 percent is a clear call or shove and anything where you are losing .1 percent is a clear fold. We are talking about decimal points here, so when something is 1.77 percent, it’s not even close or even debatable.

Khuri is currently an instructor at CardRunners and Pokerstrategy.com, as well as offering private coaching from his own site, www.Sngexperts.com.

In poker, the Independent Chip Model (ICM) uses the stack sizes of remaining players and the payout structure to calculate each player’s equity in the tournament.

Knowing your equity allows you to assess whether a particular play is +$EV and is a hugely powerful tool when making decisions on the bubble in Sit n Go tournaments. This knowledge can allow you to make some +$EV moves that are not immediately obvious to everyone. This gives you an edge on the competition and will give a healthy boost to your ROI.

Equity calculations using the Independent Chip Model

The definition might sound a little complicated if you haven’t heard it before but it’s quite simple to understand with the aid of a couple of examples.

Let’s first take a look at an example of a bubble situation.

You are in a regular 10 man SnG with a $10 buy-in, 50/30/20 payouts and 1500 starting chips each. You are down to 4 players and by a happy coincidence all players have the same number of chips 3750. We will ignore the effect of the blinds to keep things simple.

It is not hard to work out that the equities for all players here is $25.

The next hand player A and player B get all-in and Player A wins. Now the chip stacks look like this:

Player A – 7500

Player C – 3750

Player D – 3750

This is where ICM gets interesting. The chips that Player B lost were worth more to him than they are to Player A. It sounds counter intuitive, after all player B lost 3750 chips and player A gained 3750 chips, but Player A’s equity has gone up by less than Player B’s equity went down.

Player B’s equity has gone from $25 to $0. This $25 must be split by the remaining players. If Player A’s equity went up by $25 to $50 then that would imply he is guaranteed to finish in first place. He certainly has the best chance of finishing in first but the other two players are still in the race and their equities have now increased accordingly.

Using an Independent Chip Model calculator we can see the player equities are as follows:

Player A – $38.33 (+$13.33)

Player C – $30.83 (+$5.83)

Player D – $30.83 (+$5.83)

[An ICM calculator is a piece of software that does ICM equity calculations for us. Getting one will help your game immensely and will pay for itself in no time. SnG Wizard is one of the best around and can be purchased at www.sngwiz.com]

Why is this important?

Let’s assume that you are Player A. In the all-in hand between you and Player B, Players C and D fold, Player B shoves and it is up to you to decide whether you should call or not.

You have to risk $25 in equity to win $13.33 in equity. This means your hand needs at least 65.3% equity against the range of hands that Player B shoves.

(25 divided by 25 + 13.33 = 65.3 rounded up)

By looking at a couple of examples of hand ranges using PokerStove we can see that ICM will allow you to make a superior play that is not obvious to most players, which will increase your ROI.

[PokerStove is a free poker tool that allows you to calculate the equities of different hand ranges. Download it for free at www.pokerstove.com]

Example 1:

You look down at AJs. It’s a decent hand and you know from your previous games with Player B that he will be shoving the top 35% of hands.

AJ has a big edge against this range. Its equity is 61.5% (calculated using PokerStove). 61.5% falls somewhat short of the 65.3% needed for a call to be +$EV though, so even though AJ has an edge over his hand range, the correct play is to fold.

Poker Independent Chip Model Anchor Chart

Example 2:

Here we will take an extreme example where you know for a fact that you have the best hand. You again have AJs in spades. Player B shoves and shows you that he has KQs, also in spades. You have the best hand and if this were a cash game you would snap call. However, if you run the equities in PokerStove you can see that your hand has roughly 61.1%, again not enough to make this a profitable call.

The Independent Chip Model and your ROI

So we have shown you how you can use the Independent Chip Model to sometimes profitably fold the best hand. What effect will this play have on your ROI?

Take the numbers from example 1. Our hand has 61.5% equity. How much of a difference will folding make to our ROI versus calling?

If you fold:

You will still have $25 in equity

If you call:

61.5% of the time you will have $38.33 equity = $23.57 on average

38.5% of the time you will have $0 equity

So calling costs you $1.43 in equity on average. This is 14.3% of the $10 buy in! Obviously this exact hand will not come up in every Sit and Go, but every time it does, your knowledge of the Independent Chip Model will make you 14.3% of a buy in. It’s not hard to see how this knowledge applied to many situations can add up to a significant edge over your competition.

Time for some fun – Relentless aggression!!!

So far we have shown you that ICM can assist you in making good folds in SNGs, but where’s the fun in folding your way to the money all day? It’s time to use the Independent Chip Model to ramp up the aggression.

If you need a very strong hand to call a players shove, then it’s also true that if we shove, our opponent needs a very strong hand to call. This opens up a lot of opportunities for us to really pile on the pressure in bubble spots.

Keep in mind our example above. Let’s now assume that you are in Player B’s spot. Hurray! It’s time to shove all the chips in the middle. Let’s say that you know player A has AT. We can shove any two cards and Player A does not have the correct odds to call. That’s right! A hand as strong as AT has to fold here. AT vs. a random hand has 62.7% equity, so if Player A knows perfect ICM we could even tell him we are shoving any two cards and there’s nothing he can do but fold.

Now before you go off and start shoving every hand like some sort of unstoppable monkey, we have made some pretty big assumptions here and there are some very important considerations and adjustments that need to be made.

Additional considerations for the Independent Chip Model

ICM and player type

Each poker player is different and most will not know perfect ICM strategy. Again let’s assume your opponent has AT and you are considering whether to shove any two cards. If you know this player is too loose and unaware of ICM then shoving any two cards is likely a big mistake because he will very likely call.

Notice here that your opponent is making a mistake by calling but you need to adjust your strategy to account for his mistake. He is calling with too wide a range here, so you need to tighten up your range to account for this.

Poker Independent Chip Model Calculator

[Don’t be discouraged if someone makes a play that you know is incorrect and it ends up costing you money. This is a good thing; it means there’s money to be made in future. Just take a note and adjust your range next time.]

ICM and the blinds

ICM does not properly account for the blind positions. For example if the next player in the BB is so short that he will be forced all in next hand then it is quite likely that he will be knocked out in the next hand. You will gain a significant amount of equity by just folding and letting him bust out so you need to tighten up your range in this spot considerably.

ICM and player skill advantage

ICM assumes that all poker players are of equal skill. This is obviously far from the truth. This fact can change some of your marginal decisions. For example if you know you have a large skill advantage over your opponent it may be best to avoid pushing a very small edge now to take advantage of a larger edge later when your opponent makes a larger mistake.

The Independent Chip Model – Avoiding ICM suicide

Poker is a game of mistakes. Put simply, if you make fewer mistakes than your opponent, you make money. Opponents who do not utilise ICM while playing will often commit ICM suicide. That is to say they will get into spots where they put their tournament life at risk with only a marginal advantage or even a disadvantage. Your study of ICM spots will mean you avoid committing ICM suicide while your opponents go at it again and again, handing you equity in the process.

Poker Independent Chip Models

The Independent Chip Model – You know the basics, what now?

We have only discussed some of the situations where ICM is useful in this article. To use the Independent Chip Model to its full potential it will require a little work on your part. This work is best done using an ICM calculator such as SnG Wizard which also includes a quiz feature. This feature is extremely helpful in putting your ICM knowledge to the test before hitting the tables.

This work will make you a much better poker player and greatly increase your ROI in Sit n Gos. Once you master ICM, most situations will become second nature to you and you will crush your opponents with ease.

Independent Chip Model Poker

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